Betting NFL Systems and Angles

I don’t have much patience or appreciation for betting NFL team-specific angles. When I hear someone tell me that the Raiders are 15–6 ATS in their last 21 visits to the east coast, I roll my eyes (in the nicest way possible). If there’s no connecting logic behind a trend, I dismiss it.

If you read the article on preseason betting however, you’ll see I’m an advocate for some coaching systems. Long-tenured coaches develop and retain tendencies that get passed onto their teams.

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BET Belichick's slow starts

It’s a strange one, I know. But as successful as the man has been in all aspects of his NFL coaching career if you’re reading this and Coach Belichick is still in the business, take a look at his team’s performance in late-round playoff games. It’s downright eerie how slow the Patriots start in these high-leverage games. In 10 games, the Pats have scored a touchdown in the 1st quarter once, a field goal once, and 0 points in the first quarter in all 8 other games. Sure, it’s a little flimsy, but I had to mention it.

In an NFL playoff game

If Bill Belichick is the coach AND

It’s the Conference Championship or the Super Bowl

BET under the 1st quarter.

BET a case of the Mondays

This germ of this idea came to me from Las Vegas sports betting media mogul R.J. Bell. I’ve tweaked it slightly from his version, but I’m not sure I understand the reasoning other than a MNF win is a shot in the arm. It comes up a few times a year and has gone 39–13 ATS in the last two decades (75%, Z-score of 3.47). Most importantly, this system was a perfect 4–0 in 2019.

In an NFL regular season game

The home team’s last game was at home on Monday Night Football AND

The home team’s most recent game resulted in a win AND

The home team played less than a week ago AND

The home team is favored by less than 7 or the home team is a dog

BET the point spread of the home team.

BET restless on the road

This is an example of the rest conundrum. It makes sense that more rest is better, but there are many situations where that’s not the case; this is one of them. This system has gone 39–15 ATS (72-percent, Z-score of 3.1) in the last 7 years, but more interesting is the fact that it’s an 85-percent winner as the leg of a 6-point teaser, which rises to over 90 percent when the home team’s rest is a day more than the road team’s rest.

In an NFL regular season game

When the road team is favored AND

The game total is greater than 42 points AND

The home team has at least one extra day of rest

BET the point spread of the road team.

INCLUDE the road team in a 6-point teaser.

BET growing totals

It’s slightly more convoluted than I’d prefer, but the results are real: 54 overs and 25 unders (74 percent, Z-score of 3.15) in the last 15 years of results. I like this system because I believe it identifies a hole in the betting market. The market recognizes there’s a good reason to think both teams will score more than they did before, but there are enough bettors who aren’t convinced and who continue to bet the under. The result is the total isn’t quite as high as it should be.

In the NFL regular season or playoffs

If the game total is 4 points or more than the home team’s previous game total AND

If the game total is equal to or greater than the away team’s previous game total AND

Both team’s previous game over/under results were either under the total or no more than 1 over the total

BET over the total.