How to identify the beginning of a bull market
If you’re into trading stocks, bonds, and other funds, being able to identify the signs of a bull market can help you plan your trading strategy for maximum benefit. Signs that the market is entering a phase of investor confidence are in the following list:
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Bull markets begin before the economy starts to recover.
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Interest rates are low.
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Industrial production statistics are inching higher.
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Technology and cyclical stocks are starting to rise.
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The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows higher highs and higher lows; the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line is above the trigger line and rising.
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The bullish percent index indicator shows a bull alert or a bull confirmation pattern.
How to identify the beginning of a bear market
As you trade stock on the market, you need to know when the market is taking a downward turn — becoming a bear market. The signs in the following list indicate a bear market is approaching, so adjust your trading strategy accordingly:
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Bear markets typically begin before the economy starts to decline.
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Interest rates are rising.
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Industrial production is starting to fall.
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Basic material stocks, energy stocks, and consumer staples are performing well.
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The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows lower highs and lower lows; the MACD line is below the trigger line and falling.
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The bullish percent index indicator shows a bear alert or a bear confirmation pattern.
How to trade in a bear market
When the market is reflecting investor fear and uncertainty — it’s a bear market, in other words — your trading strategy should focus on looking to sell or short fundamentally weak companies with the following characteristics:
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With poor earnings or no earnings
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In a weak sector
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In a declining economy
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While the stock is approaching a technical sell signal on its bar chart and performing worse than the average stock with low relative strength
How to trade in a bull market
In a bull market, when investor confidence is high, the sound approach to trading is to look to buy fundamentally strong companies with the following characteristics:
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With earnings that are growing faster than average
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In a strong sector
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In a growing economy
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While the stock is approaching a technical buy signal on its bar chart and performing better than the average stock with high relative strength
How to develop your own trading system
To be a successful trader, you must have good judgment and a solid trading system. Follow the steps in the following list to develop a system that works for you and that reflects your priorities and tolerances.
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Select system development tools.
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Gather historical data to test your system.
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Develop and test your system design.
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Identify system optimization pitfalls.
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Test with blind simulation.
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Account for slippage.
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Keep a trading journal.
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Frequently evaluate your trades.
How to use fundamental and technical analysis in trading
As you develop and perfect your trading strategy, you need to make use of the analytic tools available to help you. Use the steps in the following list to use technical analysis tools to your benefit:
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Determine economic cycle position.
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Determine position within sector rotation.
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Decide which sectors are ascending.
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Determine leading stocks in the ascending sector.
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Evaluate the Fed position.
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Confirm economic cycle with index charts.
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Determine whether leading sectors are range bound or trending.
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Determine whether leading stocks are range bound or trending.
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Enter the trade only if the stop-loss point is nearby.
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Trade within your preferred time frame.
Trading websites to check out
As a trader, you make use of all sorts of tools, including those available on the Internet. The following list offers links to websites that offer general trading education and information, analysis of companies, and trading tools and advice. Use at your discretion!
