Currency Articles

Cheat Sheet / Updated 10-15-2021

Foreign exchange (or forex) markets are one of the fastest and most volatile financial markets to trade. Money can be made or lost in a matter of seconds; at the same time, currencies can display significant trends lasting several days, weeks, even years. Most importantly, forex markets are always moving, providing an accessible and target-rich trading environment.

Article / Updated 06-29-2021

When it comes to trading options, knowing how to look for breaks is key. For more details on a zoomed-out look at this, read How to Find a Breakout in Trading. One way to trade a breakout is after the break has occurred. You may not have noticed the significance of a particular technical level, or you may not have left orders in overnight to exploit a break. You turn on your computer the next morning to discover that prices have jumped higher overnight and feel like you’ve missed the boat. But you may still get a chance to trade the breakout if prices return to retest the breakout level. A retest refers to prices reversing direction after a break and returning to the breakout level to see if it will hold. In the case of a break to the upside, for example, after the initial wave of buying has run its course, prices may stall and trigger very short-term profit-taking selling. The tendency is for prices to return to the breakout level, which should now act as support and attract buying interest. You can use these retests to establish a position in the direction of the breakout, in this case getting long on the pullback. The figure shows where you could have bought on the retest of the break higher in AUD/USD. Credit: Source: eSignal Note that prices did not make it exactly back to the breakout level. When trying to get in on a retest, you may consider allowing for a margin of error in case the exact level is not retested. You could also consider using a strategy of averaging into a position to establish a position on any pullbacks following a breakout. Here the averaging range would be between current prices and the break level. You may get the chance to buy/sell a retest of a breakout level. The reason is that not every breakout sees prices return to retest the break level. Some retests may retrace only a portion of the breakout move, stopping short of retesting the exact break level, which is typically a good sign that the break is for real and will continue. Other breakouts never look back and just keep going. But to the extent that it’s a common-enough phenomenon, you still need to be aware of and anticipate that prices may return to the breakout level. From a technical perspective, if prices do retest the breakout level, and the level holds, it’s a strong sign that the breakout is valid, because market interest is entering there in the direction of the break.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

In addition to the ebb and flow of liquidity and market interest during the global currency trading day, the following daily events tend to occur around the same times each day. When currency options expire Currency options are typically set to expire either at the Tokyo expiry (3 p.m. Tokyo time) or the New York expiry (10 a.m. ET). The New York option expiry is the more significant one, because it tends to capture both European and North American option market interest. When an option expires, the underlying option ceases to exist. Any hedging in the spot market that was done based on the option being alive suddenly needs to be unwound, which can trigger significant price changes in the hours leading up to and just after the option expiry time. Setting the rate at currency fixings There are several daily currency fixings in various financial centers, but the two most important are the 8:55 a.m. Tokyo time and the 4 p.m. London time fixings. A currency fixing is a set time each day when the prices of currencies for commercial transactions are set, or fixed. From a trading standpoint, these fixings may see a flurry of trading in a particular currency pair in the run-up (generally 15 to 30 minutes) to the fixing time that abruptly ends exactly at the fixing time. A sharp rally in a specific currency pair on fixing-related buying, for example, may suddenly come to an end at the fixing time and see the price quickly drop back to where it was before. Squaring up on the currency futures markets The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the larger futures markets in the world, offers currency futures through its International Monetary Market (IMM) subsidiary exchange. Daily currency futures trading closes each day on the IMM at 2 p.m. central time (CT), which is 3 p.m. ET. Many futures traders like to square up or close any open positions at the end of each trading session to limit their overnight exposure or for margin requirements.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

Forex markets refer to trading currencies by pairs, with names that combine the two different currencies being traded against each other, or exchanged for one another. Additionally, forex markets have given most currency pairs nicknames or abbreviations, which reference the pair and not necessarily the individual currencies involved. The bulk of spot currency trading, about 75 percent by volume, takes place in the so-called major currencies. Trading in the major currencies is largely free from government regulation and takes place outside the authority of any national or international body. Trading in the currencies of smaller, less-developed economies, such as Thailand or Chile, is often referred to as emerging-market or exotic currency trading, and may involve currencies with local restrictions on convertibility or limited liquidity, both of which limit access and inhibit the development of an active market. Major currency pairs The major currency pairs all involve the U.S. dollar on one side of the deal. The designations of the major currencies are expressed using International Standardization Organization (ISO) codes for each currency. The following table lists the most frequently traded currency pairs, what they’re called in conventional terms, and what nicknames the market has given them. The Major U.S. Dollar Currency Pairs ISO Currency Pair Countries Long Name Nickname EUR/USD Eurozone*/United States Euro-dollar N/A USD/JPY United States/Japan Dollar-yen N/A GBP/USD United Kingdom/United States Sterling-dollar Sterling or Cable USD/CHF United States/Switzerland Dollar-Swiss Swissy USD/CAD United States/Canada Dollar-Canada Loonie AUD/USD Australia/United States Australian-dollar Aussie or Oz NZD/USD New Zealand/United States New Zealand-dollar Kiwi * The Eurozone is made up of all the countries in the European Union that have adopted the euro as their currency. Presently, the Eurozone countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain. Currency names and nicknames can be confusing when you’re following the forex market or reading commentary and research. Be sure you understand whether the writer or analyst is referring to the individual currency or the currency pair. If a bank or a brokerage is putting out research suggesting that the Swiss franc will weaken in the future, the comment refers to the individual currency, in this case CHF, suggesting that USD/CHF will move higher (USD stronger/CHF weaker). If the comment suggests that Swissy is likely to weaken going forward, it’s referring to the currency pair and amounts to a forecast that USD/CHF will move lower (USD weaker/CHF stronger). Cross-currency pairs A cross-currency pair (cross or crosses for short) is any currency pair that does not include the U.S. dollar. Cross rates are derived from the respective USD pairs but are quoted independently and usually with a narrower spread than you could get by trading in the dollar pairs directly. (The spread refers to the difference between the bid and offer, or the price at which you can sell and buy. Spreads are applied in most financial markets.) The most actively traded crosses focus on the three major non-USD currencies (EUR, JPY, and GBP) and are referred to as euro crosses, yen crosses, and sterling crosses. The remaining currencies (CHF, AUD, CAD, and NZD) are also traded in cross pairs.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

When you look at currency pairs, you may notice that the currencies are combined in a seemingly strange order. For instance, if sterling-yen (GBP/JPY) is a yen cross, why isn’t it referred to as “yen-sterling” and written “JPY/GBP”? The answer is that these quoting conventions evolved over the years to reflect traditionally strong currencies versus traditionally weak currencies, with the stronger currency coming first. According to the market quoting convention, the first currency in a pair is known as the base currency. The base currency is what you’re buying or selling when you buy or sell the pair. It’s also the notional, or face, amount of the trade. So if you buy 100,000 EUR/JPY, you’ve just bought 100,000 euros and sold the equivalent amount in Japanese yen. If you sell 100,000 GBP/CHF, you just sold 100,000 British pounds and bought the equivalent amount of Swiss francs. The second currency in the pair is called the counter currency, or the secondary currency. Most important for you as an FX trader, the counter currency is the denomination of the price fluctuations and, ultimately, what your profit and losses will be denominated in. If you buy GBP/JPY, it goes up, and you take a profit, your gains are not in pounds but in yen.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

Online currency trading is offered by dozens of different retail trading brokerage firms operating from all over the world, so you have many options to choose from. Here are some key questions to ask when you’re choosing a broker: How good are trading executions? The key to evaluating any brokers is the speed and reliability of your trade executions. Are you consistently able to trade at the price you’re trying for? If you’re trying to sell, and your trade request fails, and you’re offered a lower price, you’re probably being requoted. (Requoting effectively means you’re trading on a wider spread than you bargained for.) Does your broker offer price improvement on limit orders? For stop-loss orders, the brokerage’s execution quality comes down to the amount of slippage experienced when prices gap following data or news announcements. You should expect some slippage on stop-loss order executions — the question is, “How much?” How are orders filled? Find out exactly how your stop-loss or take-profit orders are filled. Is a stop-loss sell order filled when the bid price matches the stop price, such as a selling stop at 10 triggered by a price quote of 10/13? Are stops guaranteed? If so, are there any exceptions to such guarantees? What’s the policy for filling limit orders? Does the market bid price need to match the price of the limit order to sell, for example? A reputable broker will have clearly defined order execution policies on their website. Are dealing spreads stable in all market conditions? Most forex brokers offer variable spreads these days. When market liquidity is high, the spreads will be tightest. During volatile market conditions and around major news events, spreads will naturally widen. However, the amount of variability can really differ among brokers, so make sure you understand how wide spreads can go when the market’s really moving. Look on a broker’s website to see if they publish their execution statistics, which can give you more insight into their execution quality — including speed, the percent of trade requests that are successfully executed, and the opportunity for price improvement. Remember: Tight spreads are only as good as the execution that goes along with them. What is the commission structure? Most online forex brokerages provide trade executions without charging trade commissions. Instead, the broker is compensated by the price spread between the bid and the offer. A few brokers offer a commission-based pricing structure coupled with narrower trading spreads. If the brokerage charges a per-trade commission, you need to factor that cost into your calculations to see if it’s really a better deal than a spread-based commission. How much leverage does the firm offer? Too much of a good thing? In the case of leverage, yes. Over the past several years, the maximum leverage available to retail traders has been reduced by regulators. For example, in the United States, the maximum available leverage is 50:1. In some markets outside the United States, such as the United Kingdom and Australia, 200:1 leverage is available. Generally speaking, firms offering excessively high leverage (higher than 200:1) are not looking out for the best interest of their customers and, more often than not, are not registered with a major regulatory body. What trading resources are available? Evaluate all the tools and resources offered by the firm. Is the trading platform intuitive and easy to use? What charting tools are available? What newsfeeds are available? Do they provide live market commentary on a regular basis? What type of research does the firm provide? Do they offer mobile trading? Are you able to receive rate alerts via e-mail, text message, or Twitter? Are there iPhone/iPad apps? Does the firm support automated trading? Does the platform offer robust reporting capabilities, including transaction detail, monthly statements, profit-and-loss (P&L) reports, and so on? Is 24-hour customer support available? Forex is a 24-hour market, so 24-hour support is a must. Can you access customer service firm by phone, e-mail, and chat? Are the firm’s representatives licensed? Knowledgeable? The quality of support can vary drastically from firm to firm, so be sure to experience it firsthand before opening an account. Is the firm regulated, with solid financials? In the United States, online currency brokerages are regulated by the National Futures Association (NFA), which is the self-regulatory body subject to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. Other geographies with solid regulatory frameworks include the United Kingdom/Europe, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore — ideally you should trade with a broker that is regulated by at least one of these regulatory agencies. Who runs the firm? Management expertise is a key factor, because a trader’s end-user experience is dictated from the top and will be reflected in the firm’s dealing practices, execution quality, and so on. Review staff bios to evaluate the level of management and trading experience at the firm. If the brokerage doesn’t tell you who is running the show, it may be for a reason.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

Knowing the fundamental drivers of currency rates is the foundation of understanding price movements. This is very important to understand if you want to trade currency as an investment. Here are some suggestions: Get to know the major economic data reports from all the major economies. Understand the importance of expectations versus actual outcomes. Anticipate alternative outcomes to better gauge how the market is really reacting. Stay aware of the pricing in and pricing out of market expectations that occurs in advance of data and events. Factor incoming data and news into the major fundamental themes of interest-rate expectations, economic-growth prospects, inflation, and structural developments. Be aware that technical and position-related themes can overwhelm the fundamentals.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

Identifying trading opportunities and planning each trade from start to finish is essential to success in currency trading. When you trade currency as an investment tool, remember to: Maintain trading discipline by formulating — and sticking to — a complete trading plan: position size, entry and exit (stop loss and take profit) before you enter a trade. Always trade with a stop-loss order. Decide on the stop loss before you’re in the trade and don’t move it unless it’s to protect profits. Identify trade entry and exit levels in advance through technical analysis. Understand how each currency pair’s prices move and what drives the prices. Determine position size based on the trade setup and your financial risk-management plan. Be patient — currencies move around a lot. Wait for the market to allow you to enter your trade strategy. After you’ve invested your time, energy, and risk capital in a trade, your work has only just begun. Managing your trade while it’s active is just as important to a successful outcome. Stay alert, be flexible, but stick to your trading plan.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

These "beginner" trading mistakes are made by everyone — from total newcomers to grizzled forex market veterans. No matter how long you've been trading, you're bound to experience lapses in trading discipline, whether they're brought on by unusual market developments or emotional extremes. The key is to develop an intuitive understanding of the major pitfalls of trading, so that you can recognize early on if you're letting your discipline slip. If you start to see any of the following errors in your own trading, it's probably a good idea to square up, step back from the market, and refocus your concentration and energies on the basic trading rules. Running losers, cutting winners: By far the most common trading mistake is holding on to losing positions for too long and taking profit on winning trades too soon. By cutting winners too early, you may not make as much — but then again, you literally can't go broke taking profit. That said, you will deplete your trading capital if you let losses run too long. The key to limiting losses is to follow a risk-aware trading plan that always has a stop-loss order and to stick to it. No one is right all the time, so the sooner you're able to accept small losses as part of everyday trading, the sooner you'll be able to refocus on spotting and trading winning strategies. Trading without a plan: Opening up a trade without a concrete plan is like asking the market to take your money. If the market moves against you, when will you cut your losses? If the market moves in your favor, when will you take profit? If you haven't determined these levels in advance, why would you suddenly come up with them when you're caught up in the emotions of a live position? Resist the urge to trade spontaneously based on your instincts alone without a clearly defined risk-management plan. If you have a strong view, go with it, but do the legwork in advance so you have a workable trading plan that specifies where to enter and where to exit — both stop-loss and take-profit. Be aware of the increased risk of trading around important news and data releases. Study economic and event calendars to identify future event risks, and factor them into your trading plan. That may mean stepping out of the market in advance of such events. Trading without a stop loss: Trading without a stop loss is a recipe for disaster. It's how small, manageable losses become devastating wipeouts. Trading without a stop loss is the same as saying, "I know I'm going to be right — it's just a matter of time." That may be so — but it may take a lot longer than your margin collateral can support. Using stop-loss orders is part of a well-conceived trading plan that has specific expectations based on your research and analysis. The stop loss is where your trade strategy is invalidated. Moving stop-loss orders: Moving your stop-loss order to avoid being stopped out is almost the same as trading without a stop loss in the first place. Worse, it reveals a lack of trading discipline and opens a slippery slope to major losses. If you don't want to take a relatively small loss based on your original stop loss, why would you want to take an even larger loss after you've moved your stop? If you're like most people, you won't — and you'll keep moving your stop to avoid taking an ever-larger loss until your margin runs out. Move your stop loss only in the direction of a winning trade to lock in profits, and never move your stop in the direction of a losing position. Overtrading: Overtrading comes in two main forms: Trading too often in the market: Trading too often in the market suggests that there is always something going on and that you always know what it is. If you always have a position open, you're constantly exposed to market risk. But the essence of disciplined trading is minimizing your exposure to unnecessary market risk. Instead, focus on trade opportunities where you think you've got an edge, and apply a disciplined trade strategy to them. Trading too many positions at once: Trading too many positions at once also suggests that you're able to spot multiple trade opportunities and exploit them simultaneously. More likely, you're throwing darts at the board, hoping something sticks. Trading too many positions also eats up your available margin collateral, reducing your cushion against adverse market movements. Be careful about trade duplication and overlapping positions — a long USD/CHF position can be the same as a short EUR/USD or GBP/USD (all long USD versus Europe), while a short EUR/USD and a long EUR/JPY position nets out to be the same as being long USD/JPY. Overleveraging: Overleveraging is trading too large a position size relative to your available margin. Even a small market move against you can be enough to cause an overleveraged position to be liquidated for insufficient margin. This common no-no is made more tempting by the generous leverage ratios available with some online forex brokers. Just because they offer you 100:1 or 200:1 leverage does not mean you have to use it all. Don't base your position size on your maximum available position. Instead, base your position size on trade-specific factors such as proximity to technical levels or your confidence in the trade setup/signal. Failing to adapt to changing market conditions: Market conditions are always changing, which means your trading approach needs to be flexible, too. Trends give way to consolidation ranges, and breakouts from ranges may lead to new trends. Stay flexible with your trading approach by first evaluating overall market conditions in terms of trends or ranges. If a trending move is under way, using a range-trading style won't work, just as a trend-following approach will fail in a range-bound market. Use technical analysis to highlight whether range or trending conditions prevail. Being unaware of news and data events: Even if you're a dyed-in-the-wool technical trader, you need to be aware of what's going on and what's coming up in the fundamental world. You may see a great trade setup in AUD/USD, for instance, but the Australian trade balance report in a few hours could blow it out of the water. Make data/event calendar reading a part of your daily and weekly trading routine. The market throws enough curveballs with unscheduled developments, so make sure you at least have a handle on what's coming up. A forward-looking mindset also allows you to anticipate potential data outcomes and market reactions and to factor them into your trading plan. Trading defensively: No trader wins all the time, and every trader has experienced losing streaks. After a series of losses, you may find yourself trading too defensively, focusing more on avoiding losses than spotting winning trades. At those times, it's best to step back from the market, look at what went wrong with your earlier trades, and refocus your energies until you feel confident enough to start spotting opportunities again. Keeping realistic expectations: Face it: You're not going to retire based on any single trade. The key is to hit singles and stay in the game. Be realistic when setting the parameters of your trading plans by looking at recent market reactions and average trading ranges. Avoid holding out for perfection — if the market has achieved 80 percent of your expected scenario, you can't go wrong locking in some profits, at the minimum.

Article / Updated 03-26-2016

Three things make you a good currency trader: platform, methodology, and psychology. Often traders have the first two covered, but they come up short in the psychology department. Do you ever think that trading is too hard? That you can't seem to make money or make a good decision? If so, that's good! It means you're a perfectly normal trader who shares the doubts and fears of traders all over the world. The key is to develop a strategy to manage those doubts and fears so that they don't get in the way of your being a good trader. Trading is hard on people — it makes them confront their fears around money, self-worth, and performance. In life, you spend most of your time somewhere in the middle, neither succeeding wildly nor failing miserably, but managing to muddle through. With trading, that isn't the case — you either make money or you don't, and you know how you performed immediately. Here are some of the Achilles heels that can negatively impact a trader's performance: Impatience: Many traders enter or exit a trade too quickly. They don't stick to their plans, lose, and then blame themselves for days afterward. This blame game leads to self-doubt, which can make you hate trading. If you're impatient, the key is to find out what triggers your impatience. Is it around major trading events like U.S. labor market data, when the market gets volatile for a few minutes? If so, don't trade during that time. Does it tend to occur if you've just had a losing trade? If so, instead of placing the first trade that comes into your head, write it down and leave it for an hour; then read it over and see if you want to place the trade. (You probably won't, but if you do, at least you'll know it wasn't because you were impatient.) Fear: Fear is an important reaction, but sometimes it causes traders to freeze. If you're new to trading, just remember that currency trading gets easier the more you do it and the fear eventually subsides. Also, put things in perspective: No one will die as a result of your putting on one trade. If you use the correct money-management skills, and if you use a sell-stop order, then you should know how much money you may lose on any trade, which can limit the fear factor. Pride: You know that feeling in your chest — the one that feels like everyone is watching and judging you if you fail. If you're worried about what other people will think of your performance, good news: Most people are too obsessed with their own lives to worry about yours. Plus, it's natural to make mistakes, so give it your best shot and don't let your pride get in the way of your learning and growing as a trader. Greed: Did you let a trade run for too long because you thought you could wring another dollar from it? If so, you aren't alone. Greed clouds the senses. You shouldn't be trading, at least initially, to make a fortune. Have realistic expectations, and treat your early trades as an experiment. Try not to think of all the things you'll be able to buy with your earnings. Trading can make you a lot of money, if you're good at it, but it takes time. The best traders are passionate about trading — they're not in it for the money. Expectations: You can easily let your expectations snowball. But if you reach for the moon too soon, you'll be disappointed, and that can lead to more mistakes. You won't become Warren Buffet overnight, or in six months, or with a $6,000 account. If you use the correct money-management skills, you should risk only 2 percent to 5 percent of your account balance on each trade. Anything else could lead you to risk too much of your account, which could wipe you out if the trade doesn't go your way. Don't expect to win all the time. Most successful traders with solid money-management systems in place may only win a little over 50 percent of the time. Nurturing your psychological health is extremely important to your success as a trader.